Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 09:06:36

ACUS48 KWNS 020906
SWOD48
SPC AC 020904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models remain in reasonably good agreement with
large-scale features through roughly Day 6.  During this portion of
the period, a cold front is forecast to shift eastward across the
Great Lakes/Midwest, and southeastward into the southern
Plains/lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys with time.

As the front shifts eastward/southeastward, it will gradually move
south of the stronger flow aloft.  Therefore, while the front will
likely focus convection each day, as it shifts cross the eastern
half of the country, the general lack of stronger shear suggests
that severe risk will remain more disorganized.

Early in the period however, reasonably strong shear is forecast in
the vicinity of the frontal zone -- which would support greater
potential for organized severe storms.

Day 4/Wednesday, as the front advances across the Middle
Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys, afternoon convection developing
along the front appears likely to pose wind/hail risk, given
deep-layer shear forecast around 35 kt across this area.

Farther west, as the front backs into the High Plains, storm
development from eastern Colorado to northeastern New Mexico is
expected -- which would then have the potential to organize and
shift off the higher terrain into the evening, posing a risk for
damaging winds and hail, and potentially a couple of tornadoes.

Day 5/Thursday, while flow atop the advancing surface front will
likely be a bit weaker, severe-weather risk appears likely to
persist across the central and southern High Plains, as low-level
southeasterly flow beneath moderate mid-level westerlies will again
provide favorable kinematic conditions for organized/upscale-growing
convection, and attendant severe risk.

Uncertainty increases Day 6 and beyond, but it appears that some
threat should linger over western portions of the Plains, but will
refrain from any additional areal issuances at this time.

...Goss.. 07/02/2023

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