Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 08:29:45 FOUS30 KWBC 020829 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 429 AM EDT Sun Jul 02 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 02 2023 - 12Z Mon Jul 03 2023 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ....Portions of the Ohio Valley Eastward to portions of the Pennsylvania/New York/New England.../ Was able to maintain decent amount of continuity for the period...especially from the Ohio Valley to the Appalachians and the Northeast U.S.. An upper low initially over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will continue to move eastward over the Midwest and allow for slow-moving storms early. The Slight Risk area was maintained without too many changes given the support from the SREF/GEFS and the HREF neighborhood probabilities. The one change in pulling the western boundary of the Slight westward was largely done in response to late night/early morning radar imagery suggesting somewhat more training potential over northern Ohio as opposed to areas just to the south. PWs in the Northeast are forecast to be as high as +2 to +3 standard deviations above the climatological average, when combined with forcing along the frontal boundary will likely lead to scattered areas of flash flooding. Farther to the south...the Marginal risk area was again extended a bit farther south over northern AL to account for slow-moving activity along and ahead of an approaching cold front. ....High Plains Adjacent to the Southern Rockies... Introduced a Marginal Risk again today as the numerical guidance develops another round of widely scattered to perhaps scattered coverage of late day convection in proximity to a lee side trough. Rainfall amounts look to be modest...but enough instability could form die to upwards of an inch precipitable water within a region of relatively steep mid level lapse rates to produce brief downpours. The areas most prone to any flooding would be run off from recent burn scars. Bann Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_CXtXF0OFbgkO27EcoxqAR8umZ3jcjWv9Ei3BVLsnnFA= CNwiF3DP7afBL_f3Y-E7i7apPUwpJtGK59zhoQ3MGEotNHA$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_CXtXF0OFbgkO27EcoxqAR8umZ3jcjWv9Ei3BVLsnnFA= CNwiF3DP7afBL_f3Y-E7i7apPUwpJtGK59zhoQ3MzY8l_Og$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_CXtXF0OFbgkO27EcoxqAR8umZ3jcjWv9Ei3BVLsnnFA= CNwiF3DP7afBL_f3Y-E7i7apPUwpJtGK59zhoQ3MxLLsNC8$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .