Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 07:31:37 ACUS03 KWNS 020731 SWODY3 SPC AC 020730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms are expected from the Upper Mississippi vally area southwestward to the central High Plains for Independence Day. A few severe storms may also occur from the Mid-Atlantic region/Carolinas west-southwestward to the lower Mississippi Valley. ....Upper Mississippi Valley to the central and southern High Plains... Continued southeastward expansion of mid-level cyclonic flow across the north-central U.S. -- as far south as the central Plains -- is expected Tuesday, with an attendant surface cold front progressing eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley and southward into the central Plains during the afternoon and evening. Daytime heating near the front over the northern Plains, and along and just to the cool side of the boundary across Nebraska and into the central High Plains, will result in afternoon thunderstorm development. Isolated stronger storms are expected from the Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to the Mid-Missouri Valley, with attendant risks for severe-caliber wind/hail. A more long-lived risk for damaging winds and hail, and perhaps a tornado or two, will extend from portions of Nebraska and Kansas westward into the central High Plains. Here, southeasterly flow near and north of the front beneath 40 to 50 kt westerlies at mid levels, will support supercell storms initially, with upscale growth into one or more MCSs through the evening, as a strong south-southwesterly low-level jet develops. This may permit potential for southeastward-moving storms accompanied by damaging-wind potential into the overnight hours. ....Middle-Atlantic region and the Carolinas west-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley... A gradually dissipating cold front is forecast to linger from the Mid-Atlantic coastal area west-southwestward to the lower Mississippi Valley area Tuesday. In the vicinity and south of the boundary, daytime heating of the moist boundary layer across the area will result in moderate destabilization -- sufficient to support widespread thunderstorms, with peak coverage from mid-afternoon through mid evening. While weaker flow aloft is forecast across the region as compared to prior days, 15 to 25 kt mid-level westerlies may support occasionally organized storm clusters, and attendant risk for marginally severe wind/hail with the strongest storms. ...Goss.. 07/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .