Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 06:01:36 ACUS01 KWNS 020601 SWODY1 SPC AC 020559 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF KENTUCKY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind and hail in a corridor from the Mid South and lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley east-northeastward into the Mid Atlantic region this afternoon and evening. ....Lower MS Valley into parts of the OH/TN Valleys... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of MO/IL/IN today. The potential for morning storms may complicate the convective scenario later today, but substantial heating of a richly moist low-level environment will support moderate to strong destabilization where stronger diurnal heating can occur. Ascent attendant to the shortwave will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, with more isolated storms possible farther west toward the lower MS Valley. Moderate and generally unidirectional southwesterly flow associated with the shortwave trough will support the development of multiple organized clusters, with effective shear of 30-40 kt also supporting the potential for embedded supercells. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the most likely hazard, though some hail will be also possible with any sustained supercells. A tornado or two could also occur, especially if any supercells can interact with a modifying remnant outflow later today. At this time, the greatest relative risk is expected from near the OH River in KY southward into parts of northern TN, and an Enhanced Risk has been introduced in this area. Other more isolated strong/severe storms may spread southward into parts of the Southeast with a localized damaging wind threat. ....Mid Atlantic and vicinity... Ahead of the primary shortwave trough to the west, a low amplitude shortwave is expected to move across the Northeast today. This shortwave may be well-timed to support diurnal storm development across parts of the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates will remain rather weak, but relatively rich low-level moisture will support moderate buoyancy, and effective shear of 25-30 kt will aid in the development of a few stronger clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and perhaps some marginal hail. ....Central/southern High Plains... Modest low-level moisture return and destabilization will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across portions of the central/southern High Plains. Localized severe gusts may be the most common hazard within this deeply mixed regime, but steep midlevel lapse rates and modest deep-layer shear could support isolated hail as well. ....Northern Plains and vicinity... A rather strong mid/upper-level low is forecast to move across the Canadian Prairies today. The southern periphery of stronger flow attendant to this feature will move across MT today and into parts of ND this evening. While the stronger large-scale ascent will remain displaced to the northwest, isolated storm development will be possible across parts of MT, and also in association with multiple cold fronts across ND into northwest MN. Isolated severe gusts and/or hail could accompany the strongest cells/clusters in this region. ...Dean/Weinman.. 07/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .