Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1382
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 01:07:36

ACUS11 KWNS 020107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020107 COR
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...Southwestern Ohio...far southeastern Indiana...far
northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020107Z - 020230Z

CORRECTED FOR LOCATION REFERENCE

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging wind gusts are possible this
evening for southwestern Ohio/northern Kentucky. An additional watch
is not currently expected this evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms in southern Indiana will eventually move into
southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky this evening. Modest forcing
from a shortwave trough in the Mid-Missouri Valley will provide some
additional cooling aloft. While cooling at the surface will not be
particularly quick due to the very moist airmass, the overall
thermodynamic profile is not likely to support widespread
strong/severe convection. The observed 00Z ILN sounding showed
capping present in the 850-700 mb layer. Given the lesser degree of
organization in the southern Indiana activity over the last hour and
the less favorable environment into southwestern Ohio, an additional
watch is not currently expected this evening. Locally
strong/damaging wind gusts may still occur with the strongest
storms, however.

...Wendt/Hart.. 07/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8iohbIreu0DJMgxhqPtSqcqapkfRCk3Ow-KttX2Orfxn-uJSp_wqen9sBS4GnfGVFFEjkq_rr=
wQXuPISaMpXrF1X4wI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38828537 39308524 39628471 39608419 39198346 38848325
            38428334 38138368 38068408 38188504 38448541 38828537=20


=3D =3D =3D
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