Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1382
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 02 2023 00:58:01

ACUS11 KWNS 020057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020057=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern Ohio...far southeastern Indiana...far
northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020057Z - 020230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging wind gusts are possible this
evening for southeastern Ohio/northern Kentucky. An additional watch
is not currently expected this evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms in southern Indiana will eventually move into
southeastern Ohio and northern Kentucky this evening. Modest forcing
from a shortwave trough in the Mid-Missouri Valley will provide some
additional cooling aloft. While cooling at the surface will not be
particularly quick due to the very moist airmass, the overall
thermodynamic profile is not likely to support widespread
strong/severe convection. The observed 00Z ILN sounding showed
capping present in the 850-700 mb layer. Given the lesser degree of
organization in the southern Indiana activity over the last hour and
the less favorable environment into southeast Ohio, an additional
watch is not currently expected this evening. Locally
strong/damaging wind gusts may still occur with the strongest
storms, however.

...Wendt/Hart.. 07/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!72nB4YUJWNeMLa2LUwRWdd9hbKO5XLQBtpr6mc_yOHZ3surWIptrD8EYEBrNCx2Ko_SzwRf4q=
L1yggK5gbFvbIxret8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38828537 39308524 39628471 39608419 39198346 38848325
            38428334 38138368 38068408 38188504 38448541 38828537=20


=3D =3D =3D
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