Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1381
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 23:31:02

ACUS11 KWNS 012330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012330=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...Parts of east-central KS and central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012330Z - 020200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk may increase during the next few
hours. Isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts are the main
concern.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations indicate a confluence zone
extending from east-central KS into central MO this afternoon --
where increasingly agitated cumulus and isolated storm development
is underway. Continued diurnal destabilization of a moist boundary
layer (middle 60s dewpoints) in the confluence zone should support a
gradual uptick in storm coverage during the next few hours. While
deep-layer shear is not particularly strong, a unidirectional wind
profile with around 30 kt of midlevel flow (sampled by the EAX VWP)
could promote brief updraft organization. Initially, discrete/
semi-discrete storms could favor marginally severe hail and locally
damaging gusts. With time, deep-layer flow/shear oriented parallel
to the confluence zone along with storm splits/mergers could yield a
couple clusters capable of severe winds. Current thinking is that
any severe risk may remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7GfESYEBg-4iMmuooD18H9aE6Gvv0ZdOAzsKdUROE8xHAbC9m1T10NarL97s-yQCWfxPso14k=
nYIdgPtTdgJg16C53Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37679526 37839552 38119564 38469555 38559530 38779443
            38949373 39049330 39179291 39319253 39239223 38899199
            38629195 38409209 38229230 37989281 37689390 37619472
            37679526=20


=3D =3D =3D
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