Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 22:16:06 AWUS01 KWNH 012216 FFGMPD ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-020330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0616 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 615 PM EDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northern MO...Southern IA...Western IL... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 012215Z - 020330Z SUMMARY...Isolated spots of flash flooding are possible due to very slow and/or repeating cells along instability axis, rates of 1.5"/hr and spots of 2-3" total. Stronger but faster moving thunderstorms may track along/through areas of higher FFG from northeast KS into central MO, quick 1-1.5" sub-hourly totals may result in urban concerns.=20 DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts the center of the large scale northern stream trough near the NEB/IA/MO border, while vorticity centers rotate along the periphery. The strongest center near CNK will rotate quickly through with strong DPVA forcing along a narrow ribbon of enhanced instability across NE KS. Cells will be strong with intense instantaneous rates over 2" but duration will be quickly shifting eastward potentially along/near I-70 though the late evening. Totals of 1-1.5" in 15-30 minutes are possible, and not likely to result in flash flooding, except in urban or prone areas for such intense rates. More spotty but flash flooding is more probable along the deformation/shear axis east of the main upper along and south of the IA/MO boarder. Solid insolation has supported temps to rise into the mid 80s with near 70s Tds supporting SBACAPE up to 2000 J/kg, with limited capping. Jet streak is passing to the southwest increasing diffluence over the the area, while remaining in the left exit of the jet streak in the MOKSAROK area. Numerous narrow updraft cores are expected along this axis with very limited or chaotic steering flow along/east of the main upper-low. As such, cells with rates up to 1.5"/hr may slow drift east with some potential repeating or even stationary nature resulting is spots of 2-3" totals in 2-4hrs as the main low slides east. This is near the regionally lower FFG values for all time ranges from 1, 3, 6hrs... with values near 1-1.5", 1.5-2.5", and 2-3" respectively. While not certain, this is sufficient to support possible isolated flash flooding through the late evening/early overnight period across N MO and the south few rows of counties in IA. South of the area of concern, FFG values are much higher and not likely to be exceeded, though may experience intense rainfall at times. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_e61Yq3yxBKTo-T45UQGe0tgrSeFUuw_XFDfHfQCIxT62SGkTjNQUR0w87Y3_NSfupH-= NjtTuyYi2J0A3b8AVLknBag$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41129300 41039137 40409017 39399088 39019496=20 38849579 38829710 39249743 39649691 40009590=20 40509575 40919522 41069426=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .