Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1378
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 21:40:02

ACUS11 KWNS 012139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012139=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-012345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southwest Texas and far southeastern New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 012139Z - 012345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increase in
severe-storm potential this afternoon, and a watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and visible satellite/radar
imagery show an outflow boundary draped across parts of southwest TX
this afternoon, with deepening cumulus and isolated convective
development along the boundary. Farther west, an organized storm has
developed over the higher terrain. Diurnal destabilization of a
moist air mass (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel
lapse rates are contributing to strong surface-based instability in
the vicinity of the boundary. While low/mid-level flow is not
particularly strong, weak low-level east-southeasterlies beneath
strengthening westerly flow aloft will still yield around 35 kt of
effective shear -- supportive of organized storms including a few
supercells. With weak large-scale ascent over the area, an initially
discrete/semi-discrete mode will favor large hail, though eventual
clustering near the outflow boundary should support an increasing
damaging-wind threat. Currently, it is unclear if storm coverage
will be sufficient for a watch, though convective trends will be
monitored.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_73OfgNwCo1zLX8Mzub-3fTCFaQAWjpxzAOUrft87JBGgrR83Le9W9ZQtB96JChz4ak0A07ig=
XxX1cjO8ehbk9UkUKM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31090305 31320356 31650388 32020390 32320385 32600373
            32860347 32850316 32710280 32570250 32430210 32340175
            32210131 32090118 31710103 31330096 31010115 30880144
            30880197 30970246 31090305=20


=3D =3D =3D
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