Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1377
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 20:35:29

ACUS11 KWNS 012035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012035=20
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-012230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern/central IL into
southern/central IN and western/central KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427...

Valid 012035Z - 012230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and large hail threat will continue across
portions of southern Illinois into western Kentucky and southwest
Indiana the next few hours. An increasing severe risk is expected to
develop late this afternoon into this evening downstream from WW 427
and a new watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Intense, severe-warned cells are ongoing across
southern IL and parts of western KY. MRMS MESH has indicated hail
between 1-2 inch in diameter is possible with these storms as they
track generally eastward across a moderate unstable airmass.
Effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt are noted in objective
guidance and regional VWP data. Over the past 30 minutes or so, more
discrete cells over southern IL appear to be trying to organize into
more of a forward propagating cluster. Damaging wind potential will
increase with any upscale development with this activity.=20

Further north and east of WW 427 across east-central IL into parts
of central/southern IN and west-central KY, airmass recovery after
morning convection appears to be well underway. Low-level inhibition
has most eroded as temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s
with low/mid 70s dewpoints. The gradient of stronger instability is
oriented across this area, and favorable shear is expected to
persist as a midlevel shortwave impulse continues to eject across MO
and into IL this evening. This should support a continued severe
thunderstorm risk into this evening, and a downstream severe
thunderstorm watch is likely.

...Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5vhH0FzpEC8aukWTw3tD5JwlIEtjOb2_aqnVXXRB3455su3QNRyq_32qCBCh4NKQlTwYhHl2_=
4z4_ypLKCmluiYnA0E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37218688 37548844 37818938 38038954 38108957 38948946
            39468913 39798851 39648686 39308556 39128522 38918508
            38598507 38128521 37868530 37358574 37178637 37218688=20


=3D =3D =3D
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