Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1375
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 19:17:58

ACUS11 KWNS 011917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011917=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...southwest and south-central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011917Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) are possible this
afternoon as storms move east near I-90.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving east-northeast across Alberta and the northern Rockies early
this afternoon.  Visible satellite/radar composite imagery shows a
cluster of intensifying strong to locally severe thunderstorms
extending from northeast ID northeastward to immediately east of
Helena.  This activity will likely continue to develop and move east
during the afternoon as additional heating occurs downstream of the
storms over south-central MT.  Early afternoon surface conditions
show temperatures warming through the 80s with dewpoints in the
lower to mid 50s.  Forecast soundings show steep 0-3 km lapse rates
(9+ deg C/km) and MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg.  The main limiting
factor for a more robust severe risk is the modest unidirectional
westerly flow (at or below 30 kt from 300 mb to the surface).=20
Nonetheless, the steep-lapse-rate environment and forcing for ascent
will likely lead to at least an isolated risk for severe gusts
accompanying stronger multicells on the leading edge of a cold pool
as it moves east across south-central MT this afternoon.

...Smith/Grams.. 07/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4tkmiHK2dsKj1e-e6SpyBdYt5QnqZdTSdxX7Oo2Xj1QewkhZC0OiWYBcAgSjaDV_qzW9TCyrB=
8KxdiisGOU86gzoI5g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   46701090 46950802 46910795 46260738 45830748 45370811
            45121034 44771148 44701288 45091308 45411284 46251166
            46701090=20


=3D =3D =3D
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