Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1373
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 17:56:29

ACUS11 KWNS 011756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011755=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-012030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...western NC...Upstate of SC...far northeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 011755Z - 012030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts are possible
this afternoon and wind damage is expected as a result.  Large hail
is possible but on a more isolated basis.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field over the Great Smoky Mountains within an area characterized by
weak to modest west-northwest flow (20-25 kt northwesterly at 4km
ARL at Greer, SC per the VAD).  Surface conditions in western NC
have warmed into the mid-upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s
to 70 deg.  Slightly richer moisture is located immediately adjacent
to the higher terrain over the Upstate of SC with lower 70s
dewpoints in the I-85 corridor.  Expecting convective initiation
over the higher peaks in western NC by 230pm (1830 UTC).  Gradual
storm development is expected through 3-4pm while storms intensify.=20
Model forecast soundings indicate PW around 1.8 inches amidst
2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon.  Steepening low-level lapse
rates will support water-loaded downbursts and at least isolated
microbursts capable of peak gusts 50-65 mph.  The thunderstorm
activity will slowly move towards the I-85 corridor by late
afternoon.

...Smith/Grams.. 07/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9lyG0sl1WOKaHrJXC_L9i6MTjfgvuuYe5ACYm9Kf4LfPdT9z6Lo8K1gyzk8kU3CguMNsB6awL=
plPYB_hV8j5CY5SPt4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35458384 35968261 36098189 35758150 35258164 34568277
            34448357 34568399 34798411 35458384=20


=3D =3D =3D
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