Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 09:00:27 ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SWOD48 SPC AC 010858 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ....DISCUSSION... Global models remain in reasonably good agreement through the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution. Aloft, a trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across central and eventually eastern Canada, south of the main polar low. As this occurs, the southern fringe of this cyclonic flow will gradually expand southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. through the period. In tandem with this southeastward expansion of cyclonic flow aloft, a surface cold front will progress slowly southward across the Plains, and eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region through early and middle stages of the period. By Day 7, the front is forecast to have reached the East Coast and Gulf Coast states. In general, stronger flow aloft is forecast to remain to the cool side of the surface front -- especially beyond Day 5. Meanwhile, as the front backs into the High Plains during middle to latter stages of the period, more favorable shear is expected in this area, given the low-level southeasterly post-frontal winds. At this time, severe-weather risk appears as though it may maximize over the Nebraska vicinity Day 4, along the front as it shifts southward, and possibly westward into the southeastern Wyoming vicinity in upslope flow to the cool side of the front. Moderate, diurnally maximized instability coupled with moderate mid-level westerlies near and just to the cool side of the front should support risk for strong/severe storms along with attendant hail/wind risk. Some severe risk will also extend northeastward along the front, and at least limited frontal-induced severe potential will exist each day, as the boundary advances. With time however, risk should remain maximized in the vicinity of the High Plains, near the western/stalled portion of the front in the typical post-frontal upslope flow regime. However, difficulty of narrowing down smaller zones of greater risk across the High Plains area at this stage precludes highlighting any risk areas. ...Goss.. 07/01/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .