Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 08:27:23 FOUS30 KWBC 010827 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 AM EDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 01 2023 - 12Z Sun Jul 02 2023 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND UPSTATE NEW YORK... Few changes needed from continuity as yesterday's Day 2 outlook becomes today's Day 1 outlook. Convection capable of producing heavy to potentially excessive rainfall will be forced by broad-scale ascent ahead of a trough approaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley by later today with additional convection forming along and ahead of a cold front approaching the area.=20 With forecast soundings showing favorable thermal and moisture profiles...and precipitable water values in excess of 1.75 inches across the area...convection should be fairly efficient rainfall producers that could result in instances of flash flooding due to rainfall rates between 1 and 2 inches per hour under the most active storm. Greatest concern is over parts of Kentucky which has lower flash flood guidance due to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the past couple of days. Maintained the Slight risk area over and near northern New York given the 1 to 2 inch QPF and the recent wet spell. ....Davis Mountains to the Stockton/Edwards Plateau... The models continue to advertise that a mid-level disturbance and associated moisture will be moving out of northern Mexico and enter the U.S. later today/tonight. Precipitable water values between 1.3 and 1.7 inches...which is nearly 2 standard deviations above climatology for this time of year...look to be in place by the time the energy ejects out over the high plains adjacent to the southern Rockies. This environment could result in localized downpours and associated isolated flash flooding. Bann Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_n6-Df5yMrGxCuhbO6TQZg6VZ6USS8_TKQ5whZ6C-GXb= 6lTZssLHV0Us33E6o1iot9GIPyEAoJIhHmRSlzF1h8w1ZXQ$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_n6-Df5yMrGxCuhbO6TQZg6VZ6USS8_TKQ5whZ6C-GXb= 6lTZssLHV0Us33E6o1iot9GIPyEAoJIhHmRSlzF1-GXTF3Q$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_n6-Df5yMrGxCuhbO6TQZg6VZ6USS8_TKQ5whZ6C-GXb= 6lTZssLHV0Us33E6o1iot9GIPyEAoJIhHmRSlzF1ra4D2Vk$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .