Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 05:56:56 ACUS02 KWNS 010556 SWODY2 SPC AC 010555 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday, where locally damaging winds and hail will accompany stronger storms. ....Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to traverse the Midwest region through the day Sunday, and then into the Northeast U.S. later in the period. Cyclonic flow will also expand across the northwestern and eventually north-central portions of the country, south of an eastward-moving, western Canada upper low. Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will largely prevail across the southern half of the country. At the surface, a cold front will shift southeastward into the northern Intermountain region, and eastward across the northern Plains, while a weaker baroclinic zone lingers across the Ohio Valley area through the period. ....Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward to the Atlantic Coast... As a mid-level trough moves across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area and into the Northeast, afternoon heating/destabilization will support clusters/bands of thunderstorms -- developing during the day and persisting locally after dark. Greater instability is expected south of the Ohio River, where damaging wind risk will exist along with potential for hail. Weaker flow aloft with southeastward extent should limit overall severe risk into the Southeast states, though a few marginally severe storms are expected. Farther north -- north of the River -- instability will be less robust, which should result in more isolated damaging wind potential. Overall, the corridor with the best overlap of favorable instability and stronger/westerly flow in the 850mb to 500 mb layer, will likely reside from roughly the Ohio to the Tennessee Valley, and eastward to the Mid-Atlantic region. As such, will maintain this as the zone of SLGT/15% severe risk. ....Parts of the central and southern High Plains... Isolated storms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Front Range and southward into New Mexico, as modest afternoon destabilization occurs through peak heating. As storms move off the higher terrain, a dry sub-cloud layer may help to promote locally strong/gusty winds. Storms should diminish through the evening. ....Northern Plains... As a cold front shifts eastward across the north-central U.S., afternoon destabilization my prove sufficient to allow isolated/late-day storm development. While stronger flow aloft will remain to the cool side of the boundary, a stronger storm or two -- across parts of the Dakotas and perhaps westward to the Bighorns -- may produce brief/strong wind gusts. ...Goss.. 07/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .