Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 03:32:47

AWUS01 KWNH 010332
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-010945-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0609
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1131 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...Much of Central and Northeastern KS...Northwest
MO...Far Southeast NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010345Z - 010945Z

Summary...Localized repeating of 1-2"/hr rainfall rates may lead
to additional totals as high as 2-4". Isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Several clusters of convection are ongoing across
much of central and northeastern KS and northwest MO late this
evening, generally positioned (synoptically) along the northwest
periphery of a distinct upper-level high/ridge (and its associated
surface stationary front). The mesoscale environment is
characterized by ample instability (with MU CAPE of 1000-3000
J/kg), PWATs of 1.5-2.0 inches (near the 90th percentile, per TOP
sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 20-40 kts. This
parameter space should continue to foster additional growth of
convection, though the convective mode will likely remain fairly
disorganized (given a rather broad, disjointed low-level jet).
Even so, thunderstorms so far this evening across the region have
had no problem producing 1-2" of rainfall in as little as 30 min
(which is already approaching 1-hr flash flood guidance in some
locations). For the remainder of the overnight, flash flood
concerns are increasing a bit with the potential for 1-2"/hr rates
to locally repeat where convection is best able to train (along
the stationary front) from west-to-east.

The 00z HREF supports the aforementioned concerns, suggesting
additional localized totals of 2-4" over the next 6 hours or so
(per the probability-matched mean). Statistically, the 40-km
neighborhood probability of 3" exceedance is as high as 20-40%,
with the spatial agreement among the ensemble (aka the ensemble
agreement scale) suggesting relatively high odds for over 1" of
rainfall across north-central KS. Subsequent HRRR runs have
depicted similar QPF totals, through not quite as consistently
(with the most recent runs seeming to flub the most). Regardless
of the exact model details, additional localized totals fo 2-4"
over the next 3-6 hours seems reasonable, and isolated to widely
scattered instances of flash flooding are considered possible.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6PqD5sAobGVDPU4LoiTvIKI-uF9IOpQq5Kj3josYbVLhtOvn-iWPRYZMaPDTYR310mTF=
nTFtU5KO-sPyjFqaLXaEwRo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OAX...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40709463 40579261 39789179 38809266 38849458=20
            38389624 37899731 37219891 37090020 37580043=20
            38699994 39379926 39819862 40149788 40469680=20
            40689550=20

=3D =3D =3D
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