Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 01:02:22 ACUS01 KWNS 010102 SWODY1 SPC AC 010100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado will remain possible this evening from the Mid-Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys and across the central to southern High Plains. ....Mid MS Valley into the TN Valley and vicinity... Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from the mid MS Valley into parts of the lower OH Valley. Hot and very humid surface conditions are supporting strong to extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-5000 J/kg). Modest effective shear of 30-40 kt is sufficient for supercells in the presence of large buoyancy, and a few reports of large to very large hail have been noted across the region. A few supercells will remain possible into mid evening with a continued threat of hail, locally damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some tendency for clustering is possible, though with stronger large-scale ascent likely to be focused north of the effective warm front tonight and a general increase in MLCINH with time, the longevity of the severe threat as ongoing storms spread southeastward is uncertain. There is some potential for a storm cluster to spread as far as extreme northeast AL into northwest GA, though the threat is increasingly conditional with southward extent. Additional development is possible this evening along the surface boundary from central into northwest MO, which could move into the region later tonight. Farther north, elevated storms may develop north of the boundary across central IL into IN as a low-level jet increases later this evening. Even with a tendency for storms to become increasingly elevated with time, favorable buoyancy and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps localized damaging gusts overnight. ....Central/southern Plains into northern MO... Multiple storm clusters are expected to persist across parts of the central/southern Plains through the evening. The strongest buoyancy this evening is expected to remain near the surface boundary from northeast KS into northern MO, where marginally sufficient deep-layer shear may support isolated supercells capable of large hail and locally damaging gusts. Farther west, storm coverage may increase through the evening across parts of the central/southern High Plains, in response to a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across parts of CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 40+ kt will continue to support some stronger cells/clusters capable of large hail and isolated severe gusts. Storms are generally expected to weaken late tonight, but localized instances of hail and/or strong/severe gusts will remain possible into the overnight hours. ...Dean.. 07/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .