Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 01 2023 00:18:47

AWUS01 KWNH 010018
FFGMPD
TXZ000-010400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0608
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...Southern Cap Rock & Northern Permian Basin of
West Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010015Z - 010400Z

SUMMARY...Converging clusters with repeating pose spotty 2-3"
totals in 1-2hrs and possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Local RADAR denotes a few clusters, linear convective
elements starting to converge across the southern Cap Rock.  VWP
and RAP analysis denotes a weak surface to 850mb wave coincident
with this merger within a broader SSW to NNE moisture plume. CIRA
LPW, particularly shows this enhanced plume emanating from the
sub-tropical plume out of the Eastern Pacific...while the nose of
enhanced surface moisture is filtering through the Pecos River
Valley to enhance total PWat into the 1.75" range.

Strong convergent flow is sufficient for flux into thunderstorms
for 1.75-2"/hr rates, but not strong enough to force
south-southeast propagation vectors.  Given proximity to the weak
low level wave, cell motions should also be slow for storm-scale
interaction/mergers near outflow boundaries to support occasional
uptick to 2.5"+ in sub-hourly duration. Still, spots of 2-3" are
probable in a 1-2 time frame as the wave/convection slowly
progresses eastward.  As such, spotty localized flash flooding is
considered possible.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8M9wDvhGuLTeN3Qhl0-FqE3F-mMQXjTEvtGhW8vXxrkS8OBoNbeILkzKlsFFyJ7FUCM0=
oL_w1TrPA7t-h7ozBoG_MfE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33870049 33240003 32280039 32080112 32240204=20
            32750241 33500222=20

=3D =3D =3D
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