Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1362
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 30 2023 22:58:21

ACUS11 KWNS 302258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302258=20
KSZ000-010030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...North-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 302258Z - 010030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed for
parts of north-central Kansas within the hour, as an organized MCS
approaches the area from the west.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows an organized MCS
tracking eastward across parts of northwestern Kansas at around
40-45 kt -- with a history of 60-70 mph gusts. Within the
pre-convective environment, moderate surface-based instability and
40-50 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the leading-edge
gust front should support the maintenance of this system with
eastward extent -- especially along and south of an
east-west-oriented outflow boundary over northern KS. Given the
potential for a continuation of severe winds into north-central KS
this evening, a watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so
for parts of the area.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 06/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-Q1TtHKR2P2UIBk44q0oiS26VozO0poZwvkMCHL9HR8FvPS5aJqmbiRhazZmpqiAbwmxFr6p3=
YMFbUMQCIgXrYcPZpY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38610006 39070011 39799965 39959930 39969847 39939803
            39719779 39229768 38519788 38249829 38209928 38339990
            38610006=20


=3D =3D =3D
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