Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1355
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 30 2023 18:11:17

ACUS11 KWNS 301811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301810=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-302015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1355
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...eastern Colorado...adjacent northeastern New
Mexico...northwestern Kansas...southwestern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 301810Z - 302015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually intensifying thunderstorms, possibly including
both an organizing cluster and discrete supercells, are likely
across much of eastern Colorado and the adjacent high plains through
2-4 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...A large-scale mid-level trough is in the process of
gradually shifting across the southern Rockies, with a belt of
strong, broadly cyclonic and southwesterly flow in the 300-250 mb
layer now overspreading eastern Colorado and adjacent portions of
the high plains, to the east of the trough axis.  Considerable
thunderstorm development has already initiated and spread east of
the Colorado Front Range, supported by forcing for ascent in the
left exit region of the jet.  More widely scattered additional
thunderstorms are continuing to initiate across the higher terrain
to the west and southwest.

Into the 20-22Z time frame, a moist boundary layer preceding
consolidating convective outflow spreading across northeastern
Colorado/parts of adjacent southwestern Nebraska, southwestward into
the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, will continue to
destabilize with further insolation and cooling aloft.  Mixed-layer
CAPE appears likely to increase in excess of 1000 J/kg, as
inhibition also weakens, and this should lead to intensifying storms
in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.

This may include an organizing cluster emerging from the initial
activity spreading east of the Front Range, and initially more
discrete supercells propagating northeastward off the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains.  Strongest storms probably will pose a risk for
large hail and strong wind gusts, and perhaps at least some risk for
a tornado or two.

...Kerr/Grams.. 06/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5l7f68qET3uvuzAdyc1M27w9kEs0EazIp54PhiRXnFgw7UjQNQyiF_y_KnIjhxwCF5T2diZLz=
D2ABSLJhpkkbuJH-vg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   39040434 39770344 40830288 41580162 40590071 38500220
            36890326 36750458 37820485 38610492 39040434=20


=3D =3D =3D
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