Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1352
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 30 2023 04:55:18

ACUS11 KWNS 300455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300454=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-300700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...western into central and northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 300454Z - 300700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing across central KS in
association with intensifying thunderstorms. Severe wind/hail would
be the main concerns. Convective trends are being monitored for the
need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...A relatively weak, disorganized MCS is progressing
across KS, with a small, embedded MCV noted in Ness County. Ahead of
the MCS is a strengthening low-level jet, with 20+ kts of southerly
flow supporting warm-air/moisture advection to an 850 mb jet
terminus/boundary located along the KS/NE border. Given the presence
of widespread 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (and corresponding 2000
J/kg MUCAPE), along with 30 kts of 0-3 km shear (per 04Z
mesonanalysis), some potential exists for convective elements within
the MCS to intensify, with cellular modes supporting severe hail. If
stronger storm cores can aggregate and support a developing cold
pool, severe winds will also be possible. However, given the
conditional nature of convective upscale growth, convective trends
will continue to be monitored before a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
proposed.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 06/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5iovncipDVtVdPHqahl1Wg2MybY88zzBpeqo0pdERzQ1pPXi16EWaZP6JzCOiAvLwOzxv1E0v=
tJBVSiVocoKtMrjV1Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38139962 38699955 39129922 39629851 39929759 40049661
            39849578 39529544 39219533 38849548 38559621 38279740
            38039868 38009919 38139962=20


=3D =3D =3D
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