Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1350
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 30 2023 01:53:41

ACUS11 KWNS 300153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300153=20
NEZ000-300330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...portions of western into central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...

Valid 300153Z - 300330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe winds will remain a concern across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 421, especially in the path of a bow-echo MCS for
the next few hours. Large hail may also accompany a preceding
supercell for the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...A mature MCS has materialized across western NE, and
continues to accelerate eastward. The MCS has taken on bow-echo
characteristics, with both MRMS mosaic radar data showing a book-end
vortex to the north of the bow apex, with cross-sections of KLNX
radar data revealing strong, descending inbound velocities behind
the apex, indicative of a rear-inflow jet. As such, severe wind
gusts may accompany this MCS. However, lower-level shear below 5 km
(and especially in the surface-3 km layer) remains weak across
western into central NE, so confidence in a long-lasting, robust
severe-wind threat is not overly high. Nonetheless, at least a few
severe gusts should remain possible into tonight. Furthermore,
severe hail (perhaps exceeding 2 inches in diameter) remains
possible with a discrete supercell ahead of the bow echo, until this
storm is absorbed into the leading line. It is also possible that
the merging of the bow echo and supercell may briefly augment the
severe wind threat.

...Squitieri.. 06/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-YIO05MlVdMK-CR2Cwwlq7WKHR5NdfGWYzXOeJQooLPD5xR40MFww-4KAaUl5AF1BOHEC-sxg=
ACMnJwGJicMCYRDVOo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON   41710264 42680219 42930135 42969984 42669928 41799920
            41189929 40880013 40940149 41110234 41710264=20


=3D =3D =3D
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