Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1345
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 22:31:43

ACUS11 KWNS 292231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292231=20
KSZ000-COZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...portions of west-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 292231Z - 300000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe threat may materialize with
storms initiating off of a frontal boundary. Convective trends are
being monitored for more widespread growth and subsequently, the
need for a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Robust, discrete convection has recently occurred along
the Ness and Rush County, KS line in association with a baroclinic
zone. In addition to widespread 8+ C/km lapse rates overspreading
KS, The latest HYS, RSL and GRD surface observations depict surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F, suggesting locally higher
buoyancy is present at the location of storm initiation. Given
elongated hodographs, any storms that can continue to mature may
produce severe hail. However, with overall weak forcing for ascent,
it is unclear how widespread any severe potential would ultimately
become. As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for
the need of a WW issuance.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 06/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7DlvQXEXjtQ-DyL8jLS9LqXOaPSkcEzq4EWibOuliR6Jh1v-KBz9f8mA5xhOTQFLTepEhrR7M=
LVALAvPY44pjpoZdEY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   38269860 37800003 37340153 37260258 37510309 38020266
            39009996 39259914 39129832 38639825 38269860=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.