Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1344
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 22:16:40

ACUS11 KWNS 292216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292215=20
ALZ000-292345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...

Valid 292215Z - 292345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds remain possible with a
southward-moving supercell cluster in northern Alabama this evening.
It is unclear if a small downstream watch will be needed, though
trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows a southward-advancing
supercell cluster in northern Alabama this evening, which is
tracking along the eastern edge of a strongly unstable surface-based
air mass. In the short-term, large hail (possibly to 2 inches in
diameter) and damaging winds remain possible with this activity.
Within the pre-convective environment, a moist and well-mixed
boundary layer (evident via surface obs and HCRs in visible
satellite imagery) could support the maintenance of this supercell
cluster with southward extent, before the onset of increasing
nocturnal static stability. Modest deep-layer flow/shear limits
confidence in how long lived convection will be this evening, or how
large of an area will be affected. Trends are being monitored for a
new watch downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418.

...Weinman/Hart.. 06/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_f3gozzMRMZdtH6jooOw8C14cGy2gVnw54WskLorINBgmaJKWs3O3SV2zg2_417v--8xZdrUa=
mTr8IQUZHt5nKIFROc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34068790 34438786 34668772 34738753 34728705 34588678
            34368665 33928662 33548690 33558740 33718774 34068790=20


=3D =3D =3D
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