Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1342
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 20:03:38

ACUS11 KWNS 292003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292003=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...far northeast NM...southeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 292003Z - 292200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for large hail (diameter 1 to 1.75
inches) and severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger
storms this afternoon.  It is uncertain whether the isolated
coverage of severe storms will necessitate a severe thunderstorm
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar imagery composite shows two
small thunderstorm clusters near I-25 straddling the NM/CO border.=20
Surface conditions to the northeast and downstream of these storms
is relatively moist with mid 50s to 60 deg F dewpoints.=20
Temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s and steep 0-3 km lapse
rates are in place ahead of the ongoing convection.  It seems
plausible the risk for severe gusts may increase through this
afternoon as additional storms develop and some of the outflows
congeal.  Isolated large hail is possible with the stronger updrafts
due to steep low to mid-level lapse rates, but the risk for severe
gusts may become the primary hazard towards late afternoon/early
evening coincident with storms moving into a slightly more
moisture-rich airmass and evaporative potential increases.

...Smith/Guyer.. 06/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4vB34Ed8k9Vjr8qI2YifeRcJrTg916bj0hBcZprZDqxu7sRgtVZIoskc8g857H-hudoqqTJbO=
2M_Wt_7VYBCvhCUK18$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38030187 36210378 36100437 36220485 36500513 36890506
            37600466 38700361 38890296 38890254 38740208 38530189
            38030187=20


=3D =3D =3D
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