Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 17:32:37 ACUS02 KWNS 291732 SWODY2 SPC AC 291730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH CENTROIDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms producing wind damage are expected Friday mainly from Illinois southeastward toward the southern Appalachians. Severe storms with large hail and wind are also forecast over eastern Colorado into parts of Kansas and Nebraska. ....Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain over the lower MS Valley, with moderate mid and high level flow from the central Plains into the OH Valley. A positive tilt upper trough will result in cooling aloft over the central Plains, while the upper high gradually weakens due to daily bouts of storms around the periphery. At the surface, substantial low-level moisture will remain across the MS and OH Valleys, with 70s F dewpoints and cool midlevel temperatures again resulting in very strong instability. Moisture will also linger along and north of a southwest/northeast surface trough over the central Plains, again with cool temperatures aloft maximizing instability. ....Mid MS Valley to the southern Appalachians... The potential will exist for corridors of damaging winds across portions of the region, as forecast soundings indicate very strong instability. Uncertainly exists given the potential for early day activity, and potential outflows. In general, extreme instability will exist over parts of southern IL, KY, and TN, with modest midlevel northwesterlies of 20-30 kt. Winds around 850 mb will be out of the northwest, but still within the deep-layer theta-e plume and favoring forward propagating MCSs. If a well-develop system can develop, it may spread farther south than forecast into much of northern GA and AL. ....Central Plains... Cooling aloft with the upper trough along with plentiful low-level moisture north of the boundary will lead to widespread thunderstorms over CO and extending into northeast NM during the afternoon. Directional shear will lead to hodographs favorable for large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado before storms eventually merge as they move into western KS during the evening. Additional late day storms are expected to form in the hotter air from southwest KS into west TX. Locally damaging gusts will be possible there. ...Jewell.. 06/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .