Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 17:20:07 ACUS01 KWNS 291720 SWODY1 SPC AC 291718 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS... ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR IMPROPERLY FORMATTED HAIL POINTS PRODUCT ....SUMMARY... Swaths of damaging winds of 60-80 mph, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are expected today across Illinois and western/southern Indiana. Other severe storms with large hail and damaging winds gusts are expected across the Tennessee Valley, as well as the central High Plains. ....Midwest/Tennessee Valley including MO/IL/IN/KY/TN... An upper-ridge peripheral zone of locally intense/significant severe weather is expected today, especially across Illinois into western/southern Indiana and west-central Kentucky southward across the Tennessee Valley. A prominent/relatively large MCS across northeast Missouri and northwest Illinois at late morning will continue to progress eastward through a very unstable air mass, with potential for significant wind gusts, occasional hail, and some convective line-embedded tornado risk. The eastern extent of the most intense severe weather is a bit uncertain given current air mass characteristics across far eastern Illinois into Indiana in the wake of early day storms, but severe weather can nonetheless be expected through the afternoon into evening. Another focused corridor of severe weather will exist from the Lower Ohio Valley southward into the Tennessee Valley, highlighted with a leading south/southeastward-moving MCS, as well as regenerative potentially severe convection on its trailing west/northwest flanks. Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail will be possible into this evening in this corridor. ....Front Range/Central Plains this afternoon/evening... Have upgraded portions of the Front Range and southeast Wyoming/far western Nebraska and northeast Colorado to an Enhanced Risk. Severe storms are expected later this afternoon into tonight within the post-frontal upslope low-level flow across eastern Colorado/southeast Wyoming, with appreciable low-level moisture having spread westward to the Front Range overnight. Breaks in the low clouds will support moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg), when thunderstorm development will become more probable on and immediately east of the higher terrain from Colorado into southeast Wyoming. The moderate buoyancy and relatively long hodographs with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt will support supercells capable of producing large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, along with some tornado potential. Upscale growth into a few clusters will be possible this evening, with an attendant threat for isolated severe-caliber winds. Some of the evening convection may persist into the overnight hours across southern Nebraska/northern Kansas with some threat for isolated large hail and wind damage, potentially as far east as southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri. ...Guyer/Smith.. 06/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .