Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1335
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 14:37:07

ACUS11 KWNS 291437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291436=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...western and central Kentucky...parts of adjacent
southeastern Illinois...southern Indiana and middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

Valid 291436Z - 291630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
continues.

SUMMARY...Some uncertainty lingers, but the ongoing developing
cluster of storms may be maintained and become better organized with
increasing potential to produce damaging wind gusts while tending to
propagate south-southeastward through midday.  Trends are being
monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch
or two to the south and perhaps southeast of WW 414.

DISCUSSION...Within modest northwesterly deep-layer mean flow,
stronger convection is currently tending to propagate
south/southwesterly, aided by elevated inflow inflow of seasonably
moist air with large potential instability emanating from the middle
Mississippi Valley.  On the western flank of the primary evolving
convective system, strengthening surface outflow appears to be in
the process of advancing across and south of the Evansville
IN/Owensboro Ky areas, as southerly near-surface inflow begins to
destabilize ahead of it, across western Kentucky and Tennessee.=20
While warming above both the elevated and developing unstable near
surface inflow may tend to increase inhibition, cold pool
strengthening and associated lift coupled with continuing insolation
may counter this.  If vigorous convective development is maintained,
vertical shear for boundary-layer based storms appears sufficiently
strong to support further organization and increasing potential for
damaging wind gusts.

...Kerr.. 06/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6jHiyxe4CsTvED79-jsrKyyNOwXSQu1J4dj2xTCuLrqQglD4d3pO1JTTPx3VpmFAoCLYtOhIH=
GCy0CCM2zdcTIMHfhk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   38128674 37468568 36098544 35908711 37688814 38128674=20


=3D =3D =3D
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