Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1330
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 09:07:33

ACUS11 KWNS 290907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290906=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-291030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern NE and northern KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...

Valid 290906Z - 291030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail (2+ inches) and 60-75 mph
severe wind gusts will likely continue with a supercell/small
cluster moving eastward along the Nebraska/Kansas border.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell along the NE/KS border has
produced very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and significant
severe/damaging winds across far southern NE over the past 1-2
hours. The airmass downstream of this supercell will remain very
favorable for continued convective organization/intensity, as strong
MUCAPE overlaps enhanced deep-layer shear. A 50+ kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet and related warm/moist advection
feeding into this convection will also aid the maintenance of
intense updrafts. Very large hail (2+ inches) will remain a concern
in the short term with this supercell. Recent velocity data from
KUEX also shows strong inbound velocities along the NE/KS border.
Ample DCAPE and steep lapse rates aloft should allow for a continued
threat of severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph as these
thunderstorms spread eastward across south-central NE and
north-central KS over the next couple of hours. Additional
thunderstorms have developed farther east of this supercell in the
strong low-level warm advection regime. This activity may also pose
a threat for large hail if it strengthens further and acquires
supercell characteristics.

...Gleason.. 06/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6sNCI-UxP3ozkJsBgzIv3LmlnfkNi9kK5bKruWKljuTNO34Isgp8xCx9kaBXVrYWAkXOnancE=
ekV92OeL3cs5c4ZZvQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40359951 40519894 40529689 40339636 39959613 39599643
            39609794 39659915 39819957 40359951=20


=3D =3D =3D
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