Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1328
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 06:54:33

ACUS11 KWNS 290654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290654=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-290830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern CO into southern NE and
far northern KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...411...

Valid 290654Z - 290830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410, 411
continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail up to around 3 inches in diameter and
severe/damaging winds will remain a threat as thunderstorms spread
eastward early this morning.

DISCUSSION...A parade of supercells producing large to very large
hail up to 3.25 inches in diameter is ongoing across northeastern CO
into far southwestern NE. The leading supercell in Hays/Hitchcock
Counties in NE is the most intense, and this cell will likely remain
capable of producing very large hail in the short term. The
low-level jet feeding into these storms is rather strong, with 1 km
AGL winds from VWPs at KDDC/KICT showing 50+ kt south-southwesterly
flow. The airmass downstream of these supercells is also very
unstable, with 3000+ J/kg of MUCAPE available to support continued
robust updrafts. West-southwesterly winds strengthen with height at
mid/upper levels, which is fostering 50-60+ kt of deep-layer shear.
This very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is
expected to support a continued severe hail/wind threat over the
next couple of hours as the supercells move eastward into
south-central NE and perhaps far north-central KS. There is some
potential for the leading supercell to grow upscale into a small bow
with a corresponding increase in the threat for severe/damaging
winds.

...Gleason.. 06/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ZmbcWfKHIBxJJCBhuIkZ0CmSaOxrm31LkkHFb0-I74ww3Q9_JB2aKlle4lylPXAN4gzzjXz2=
zA9gnJIRxBZrgXJRPE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   40420423 40730017 40649785 40189768 39969846 39890125
            39900276 40040424 40420423=20


=3D =3D =3D
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