Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 06:03:30 ACUS02 KWNS 290603 SWODY2 SPC AC 290602 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail will be possible in parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region and southern Appalachians on Friday. An isolated severe threat may also develop in the southern and central Appalachians, and across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. ....Synopsis... Persistent upper-level high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast will move little Friday while a belt of moderately-strong mid-level westerlies will extend across the Missouri/Tennessee/Ohio Valley region. Farther west, a positively-tilted mid-level trough will move east from the central Rockies into the central Plains. A surface front, reinforced by convective outflow, will likely extend from the vicinity of central KS east across KY/TN. ....OH/TN Valley region to central Appalachians... Morning thunderstorms, potentially an organized MCS, will likely be ongoing at 12z Friday across the OH/TN valley region, aided by low-level warm advection. Some wind potential may exist with early day storms within moderately strong northwest flow. Seasonably steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate to strong MLCAPE by afternoon in the vicinity of the front from northern MO into KY/TN, with 35-45 kt mid-level flow providing sufficient deep shear for organized storms. 00z guidance suggests a couple of mid-level impulses, possibly convectively enhanced, will move east across the area Friday afternoon and night, however substantial model variability exists regarding the timing and location of later day thunderstorm development/movement. Initial thunderstorm development will include supercell structures, with eventual evolution into one or two clusters with an increasing risk for damaging wing gusts. ....Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move into the central High Plains on Friday with mid-level flow ahead of the system remaining from the southwest. A front is forecast to be located across central/northern Kansas, with low-level moisture maximized to the north of the boundary across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected further west in the higher terrain of Colorado, and over central High Plains. These storms should move east into southern Nebraska and northern Kansas during the late afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along the axis of stronger instability, where an isolated severe threat is expected develop. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Bunting.. 06/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .