Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1325
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 02:47:04

ACUS11 KWNS 290246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290246 COR
COZ000-290345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Areas affected...northeast CO and the Front Range

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 290246Z - 290345Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...New convective development this evening may continue to
strengthen and pose an increasing risk for hail and damaging winds.
Conditions are being monitored for a possible weather watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 0235 UTC, evening IR satellite imagery showed
developing thunderstorms along the CO Front Range into portions of
northeast CO. Persistent upslope flow with dewpoints holding in the
50s F is supporting moderate destabilization. While thus far
inhibition has suppressed convective development, subtle forcing
from a passing 300 mb speed max and an increasing nocturnal
low-level jet may be sufficient for storm
development/intensification this evening. 40+ kt of bulk shear from
the FTG VAD will favor a supercell storm mode with any storms able
to become established. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable
buoyancy would support a risk for hail and isolated damaging winds.
Recent HRRR runs do show storm development/maintenance is possible
into the overnight hours lending credibility to the increasing
severe risk. Conditions are being monitored for a possible weather
watch.

...Lyons/Hart.. 06/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4BgNY9BoAELHp0A63zzexlofr6wGh3XRgX1f1Zwae_gMYolfObCZ7pzXNXleqm5jNjfi7sBOk=
rwpjbNi-XHs4bxrqzI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39660215 39450232 39390275 39480405 39770444 40050461
            40190471 40340468 40550450 40900376 40950312 40790235
            40430207 39900215 39660215=20


=3D =3D =3D
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