Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 29 2023 00:57:56 ACUS01 KWNS 290057 SWODY1 SPC AC 290056 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ....SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two are possible this afternoon/evening across northwest Wisconsin/eastern Minnesota as well as the central High Plains including southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. ....Southwestern South Dakota, southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado, and western Nebraska... Isolated severe/supercell storms are ongoing across portions of the central and northern High Plains, with the strongest being near the Wyoming/Colorado/Nebraska border at this time. Here, the greatest short-term risk exists for very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of additional tornadoes. Within the broader slight risk area, potential for large hail and damaging winds will likely continue over the next few hours, as storms shift eastward with time. ....Upper Mississippi Valley... Storm development is underway across the Upper Mississippi Valley area at this time, on the northeastern fringe of the axis of greater buoyancy to the southwest. A few of these storms may become severe with time, with locally damaging winds and hail possible with the stronger storms. Risk should diminish late this evening, as storms diurnally weaken. ...Central plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... Very substantial uncertainty persists from Kansas/Nebraska eastward ito the Mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley region overnight, with respect to potential convective coverage/evolution/intensity. CAM guidance continues to exhibit large variations in solutions overnight, with some models suggesting that storms roll out of the High Plains eastward across the central Plains -- potentially accompanied by risk for damaging winds. Others suggest that storms develop over the Iowa/northern Missouri area and the dive southeastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and eventually the Lower Ohio Valley, as an organized/potentially wind-damage-producing MCS. Others develop storms in-situ across the Illinois/Indiana vicinity, without appreciable upscale growth (and thus lesser severe risk). Overall, with very little certainty with respect to overnight convective evolution, will continue to maintain a rather broad, low-probability risk area across the aforementioned regions, with some potential that a more substantial/higher-risk evolves in a smaller portion or portions of the broad MRGL-risk area. ...Goss.. 06/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .