Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1322
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 28 2023 23:33:27

ACUS11 KWNS 282333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282332=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-290100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern CO the western OK/TX
Panhandles and southwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 282332Z - 290100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated high-based storms may produce occasional damaging
gusts this evening. Storm coverage should remain relatively low, and
a Watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2320 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
high-based convection was beginning to intensify across portions of
southeastern CO and far northeast NM. Weak buoyancy has developed
within the hot and well-mixed air mass across the southern High
Plains. On the fringes of 30 kt effective shear, storms will
predominately be multicellular. LCL heights in excess of 2km along
with very large DCAPE (> 1700 J/kg) will support the potential for
strong downdrafts with the ongoing storms. Severe wind gusts are
possible, especially if storms can grow upscale later tonight into a
loose cluster as some hi-res guidance suggests. Given the relatively
limited potential for storm organization, weak background forcing
for ascent, and more isolated coverage, a weather watch appears
unlikely this evening.

...Lyons/Hart.. 06/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9InKEOqsr7dF2YOcyRwvzmmqy21EdJ879J1xqqCZpOSj0Oo6-JuszrFSY4u0lzeghx7pa-j7s=
xkyae1uhm4CW0ttlsM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37380060 36690190 36450237 36440269 36520316 36740340
            36980343 37420330 37650309 37960274 38170250 38420212
            38710144 38670111 38510057 38240017 37830025 37380060=20


=3D =3D =3D
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