Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1321
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 28 2023 23:16:57

ACUS11 KWNS 282316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282316=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-290115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern WY...western SD...and the NE
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408...

Valid 282316Z - 290115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms should continue to pose a risk for
large to very large hail and damaging gusts tonight. A downstream
watch and or local extensions may be needed later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Across WW408, several mature storms, including a few
supercell, are ongoing late this afternoon/evening. Several reports
of severe hail have been received over the last couple of hours as
storms have maintained themselves. This should continue with hi-res
guidance and observational trends showing storms maintaining
intensity and the subsequent severe risk into this evening. The
environment across the central High Plains remains favorable for
supercells with moderate MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and a discrete storm mode suggest large
to very large hail and isolated damaging gusts are likely into this
evening. A tornado or two may also be possible with the more
discrete supercells, though low-level flow is generally weak. As
storms approach the eastern edge of WW408 later this evening the
severe risk may continue farther east. Local extensions or a new
watch will need to be considered in the next couple of hours pending
convective trends.

...Lyons/Hart.. 06/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-4-Amgy7npq0gnIbb0h7AHdzIrTfhcp-96Z8QZO8KAGWACvIyhYvqGEtea2d3caVXM3rwo8yY=
r2j5O-e-S_IqsfDGf8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   44090213 43580123 42880105 42390110 41770112 41270140
            41020168 40690235 40690275 40750319 40860377 41150455
            42470518 43320541 43910500 44330462 44470442 44590289
            44550272 44090213=20


=3D =3D =3D
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