Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1320
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 28 2023 20:09:56

ACUS11 KWNS 282009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282009=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-282215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Areas affected...east central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 282009Z - 282215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A rapidly developing supercell or two appears possible by
5-7 PM CDT, before storms begin to consolidate into an organizing
cluster.  This will be accompanied by a risk for large hail and
perhaps a tornado, before strong wind gusts becomes the more
prominent hazard this evening.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a developing low over central Minnesota,
a focused new area of thunderstorm development to the southwest of
Duluth appears largely rooted within ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection.  Models suggest that this
will generally be maintained through the remainder of the afternoon,
as the leading edge of a narrow plume of more substantive low-level
moisture return occurs on south-southwesterly flow across
southwestern through east central Minnesota.  It appears that this
will become supportive of rapid boundary-layer destabilization
characterized by mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg,
on the southwestern periphery of the initial elevated storm
development.=20=20

While this also may tend to coincide with warming and increasingly
capping mid-level air advecting from southwest to northeast across
the upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, it appears that a window of
opportunity may exist for rapidly intensifying boundary-based
thunderstorm development.  Beneath 30-50 kt westerly mid-level flow,
this may include an isolated supercell or two.  Before subsequently
tending to grow upscale into an organizing cluster, this activity
may pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 06/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9xx2bFNM9EjL0zYRX7sMfiIk_iPTtwT2Wtb70BAbiFAWvk7r7wj-yT4MDAelUSO3tFgoMib9z=
__yDbU58FrCf3JXDfo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   46019320 46029230 45699128 45379125 44649146 44779238
            45009338 46019320=20


=3D =3D =3D
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