Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 28 2023 08:52:12

ACUS48 KWNS 280852
SWOD48
SPC AC 280850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move relatively slowly across
the central and eastern U.S. from Saturday to Monday. Ahead of the
trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern
Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, and eastward to the
Eastern Seaboard. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop
across much of this airmass each afternoon. The greatest potential
for an isolated severe threat may be in the Ohio Valley on both
Saturday and Sunday as the upper-level trough approaches. The
mid-level jet associated with the trough will be weak. For this
reason, the severe weather potential will likely be determined
heavily on surface heating, pre-existing boundaries and the
distribution of instability throughout the day. As a result,
predictability concerning any potential scenario will remain low
into early next week.

....Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
The weather pattern is forecast to become nebulous on Tuesday and
Wednesday across much of the continental United States. In the far
northern U.S., a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward
across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in many areas ahead of the trough
each afternoon and evening. Although an isolated severe threat may
develop in areas that destabilize the most, the combination of shear
and instability is expected to be insufficient for a more
substantial severe threat.

...Broyles.. 06/28/2023

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