Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1317
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 28 2023 03:36:08

ACUS11 KWNS 280336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280335=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-280500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...Portions of south-central KS into
north-central/northeastern OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...

Valid 280335Z - 280500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging winds should continue
tonight. Downstream watch issuance will probably be needed into
parts of northeastern OK.

DISCUSSION...The small bowing complex along the KS/OK border has
decreased in intensity over the past hour or so. The 00Z sounding
from LMN (Lamont OK) shows very strong MLCIN and a dry layer from
around 850 to 500 mb, which is likely hindering more robust
updrafts. The southward extent of the severe risk into central OK
should also be hindered by a substantial cap in the 850-700 mb layer
noted on the 00Z OUN sounding. Still, the threat for severe/damaging
winds up to 60-75 mph will probably continue with the ongoing
cluster in north-central OK/south-central KS in the short term given
sufficient instability and shear to maintain updraft intensity and
organization. This activity should spread east-southeastward over
the next few hours along a stalled surface front that extends into
northeastern OK. Even with some MLCIN present, a threat for
scattered damaging winds will probably continue into northeastern
OK. Accordingly, downstream watch issuance into this area will
probably be needed.

...Gleason.. 06/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!60ieLwE1mqZFxlG3-stdqCPub8w5CJsIMRG8aY9DJLwCkQXn3neISRfBLKbkeVRPNn4BMrUqv=
GHw2dD7cqs31Z4AHp4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37009875 37339833 37409775 37189550 36419490 35949510
            35859579 35999682 36469849 37009875=20


=3D =3D =3D
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