Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1316
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 28 2023 02:39:07

ACUS11 KWNS 280239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280238=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-280415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...portions of central SD and NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...406...

Valid 280238Z - 280415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403, 406
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms near the NE/SD border will
likely continue to pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail for a bit
longer this evening. Greater uncertainty exists with storms into
central NE.

DISCUSSION...As of 0235 UTC, a linear cluster of strong to severe
storms near the NE/SD border remains fairly strong and well
organized this evening. Recent observational and hi-res model trends
suggest these storms will likely continue to pose a risk for
damaging gusts and some hail for a couple more hours tonight. A
local extension of some counties along the NE/SD border may be
necessary as storms approach the edges of WW406 and 403.

Farther south, convection has struggled to maintain intensity away
from better forcing for ascent and cooler mid-level temperatures.
While an isolated severe risk remains possible into central NE
tonight, confidence in a sustained severe risk is low. As storms
track farther east they will gradually encounter increasing
inhibition and weaker buoyancy into the overnight hours. Weakening
appears likely, though isolated damaging gusts may persist beyond
the eastern edge of the watches tonight.

...Lyons.. 06/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_jpmsPjQeVcWhxxCfMX56Oj-3ggnVGfDMacaPSKh5QPTUAxJJX5HlAiFtCrz3G7hrHpOdfX9S=
DWT8rL9ukEnCNfcbFk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42820164 43270112 43820065 44320039 44580023 44690005
            44719964 44609912 44339906 44039895 43439889 43069907
            42879920 41749990 41260027 41200086 41390154 41900167
            42740161 42820164=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.