Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 28 2023 01:03:07 ACUS01 KWNS 280103 SWODY1 SPC AC 280101 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... An bowing complex appears likely to continue evolving across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma this evening and continuing eastward overnight. Very large hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible early this evening, with very strong/damaging wind gusts -- locally in excess of 80 MPH -- gradually becoming the predominant risk with time. Severe/supercell storms will also continue into the overnight across parts of the South Dakota/Nebraska vicinity, where very large hail and damaging winds, and a tornado or two, can be expected. ....Southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma vicinity eastward into southwestern Missouri and Arkansas... An upscale-growing cluster of strong/severe storms is occurring across the southwestern Kansas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, along a west-northwest to east-southeast surface boundary, and an associated axis of strong instability (3500 to 4500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE). The storms are forecast to progress quickly eastward roughly along the Kansas/Oklahoma border, with some bias to the Oklahoma side of the border with time. A narrow axis for substantial/damaging wind gusts is apparent -- limited to the north by more stable air, and to the south by warm low-level air/capping. Within the axis, very large hail and damaging winds will be possibly initially, with the risk trending toward destructive wind gusts through the evening. Overnight, severe risk should spread eastward into parts of southern Missouri and Arkansas, before diminishing late. ....South Dakota and Nebraska area... Isolated strong/severe storms are ongoing at this time from portions of western South Dakota southward to southwestern Nebraska, within an axis of moderate instability (2000 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE). Isolated instances of very large hail remain possible with the stronger/supercell storms over the next couple of hours, along with locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. With time, some upscale growth of storms into one or more clusters appears likely, aided by a southerly low-level jet. Locally damaging winds and hail would accompany these clusters, as they shift eastward toward the Mid Missouri Valley overnight. ....Lower Mississippi Valley... A cluster of strong/occasionally severe storms continues moving southward across southern Mississippi toward southeastern Louisiana this evening. Some decrease in organization/intensity has been noted over the past hour or so, which should generally continue. Still, a few strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible over the next couple of hours. ...Goss.. 06/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .