Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1314
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 28 2023 00:26:37

ACUS11 KWNS 280026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280026=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-280230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...portions of central SD/NE into north-central KS.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 280026Z - 280230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms upstream may continue to pose a risk for
large hail and severe gusts into this evening. One or more
downstream watches are being considered.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 2 hours, multiple clusters of strong to
severe storms across portions of western SD and NE have matured,
with reports of severe wind gusts and large to very large hail. As
storms continue to track eastward, the environment downstream
remains generally favorable for storm maintenance with moderate
buoyancy, but some lingering inhibition. This suggests there may be
an eastern limit to severe potential, but exactly where remains
uncertain. 45-55 kt of effective shear will continue to support
storm organization with recent trends suggesting upscale growth into
one or more clusters is possible. Large hail and severe wind gusts
will remain possible with these storms as they track eastward across
SD and NE. One or more downstream, watches may be needed to cover
the threat this evening.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 06/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9A5Plf4-ifU1YXxt_gSic_Y6norGog_npg0-Bi-Yq6hkEijzZBM8i6fOQhpGnPwbdZyOzT26u=
aQZws3RYOYISn80v-I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...

LAT...LON   43169761 41939812 39719895 39239936 39269977 39459994
            39740015 42700078 44660102 45160122 45280105 45340077
            45409956 45219841 44649789 43889756 43169761=20


=3D =3D =3D
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