Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 23:16:10

AWUS01 KWNH 272316
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-280210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0599
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...Lower MS Valley & Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272310Z - 280210Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms will continue their
march southeast with maximum hourly rainfall rates up to 3"/hr
possible. Flash flooding is possible, especially in urbanized
communities and poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 satellite imagery showed a robust MCS
tracking through the Lower MS Valley this afternoon. Based on
surface observations, a cold pool and resulting meso high have
formed just north of the main line tracking southeast. The
air-mass out ahead of the MCS is primed to maintain this complex
with MLCAPE up to 4,000 J/kg, dew points in the low-mid 70s, and
effective bulk shear of 25-30 knots. The atmosphere also contains
no shortage of moisture as PWATs are as high as 2.0-2.25". These
PWATs are close to the 90th climatological percentile in parts of
the Lower MS Valley.

1-hr MRMS QPE showed portions of southeast AR received as much as
2-3" in the past hour. The mean wind vectors are out of the NW at
20 knots, so the storms' progressive nature will keep the flash
flood threat limited to areas that can see training on the
trailing flanks of the MCS, or in poor drainage areas where
torrential rainfall rates typically result in flash flooding. Most
1-hr FFGs are as high as 3", favoring the most intense storms or
areas where storms have the longest residency times that feature
the best chances to produce flash flooding. The more urbanized
cities are also at higher risk for possible flash flooding due to
the greater concentration of hydrophobic surfaces.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9cZX3x1eOab0rRwN9IQGlntnRxLd6hDSi2YZWJmGjDiZaNIryu8FywKNHr1sl-a_BCKJ=
8MNgf9NjEYTi7Ba9c6yKL1g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32689022 31858895 30938822 30378811 29938853=20
            29639000 31049154 31909210 32379185=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.