Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1310
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 22:33:34

ACUS11 KWNS 272233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272232=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-NDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming into western South
Dakota...the Nebraska Panhandle and far northeast Colorado/northwest
Kansas.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401...403...

Valid 272232Z - 280000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401, 403
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms across WW401 and WW403 are
expected to gradually increase in coverage and intensity late this
afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail and damaging
winds are likely with the strongest storms, which may take some time
to mature.

DISCUSSION...As of 2230 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
area of thunderstorms, and new convective development taking place
across portions of eastern WY, western SD, northeast CO and the
western NE Panhandle. Early afternoon WV imagery shows a mid-level
speed max moving over the area, aiding in subtle height falls and
broad-scale ascent. This, along with warm temperatures and moderate
upslope flow has removed most of the inhibition across portions of
the central High Plains. However, some inhibition is lingering
farther east where surface moisture has mixed to a greater degree.
While this may delay storm intensification (especially south)
somewhat, 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and 45-55 kt of effective shear will
eventually support storm organization into supercells and short line
segments. Large to very large hail and damaging gusts appear likely
as storms intensify into this evening. A brief tornado is also
possible with the more discrete supercells, though overall low-level
shear is fairly modest. The severe threat appears to be generally
increasing across portions of western SD, western/central NE, and
northeast CO over the next couple of hours.

...Lyons.. 06/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9wlJYuZRUZrXvIL80wkhct1PZMuEGy9IB9G1IcIThlARGxcAZ7PlBFc7c4aGKeWbKn_TTMeAI=
QIpwIwYlltbTbGvoGs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   39820253 40010317 40730368 41430371 41940390 42490435
            42710472 43570512 44210507 44550490 44980453 45140416
            45640355 45990305 45920208 45430128 45020074 44390021
            42340044 41260066 40230094 39810202 39820253=20


=3D =3D =3D
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