Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 22:06:11

AWUS01 KWNH 272206
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-280104-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0598
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
604 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...Delaware Valley...Northern NJ...Southern
NY...Northern DE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272204Z - 280104Z

SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe storms tracking through the I-95
corridor between Wilmington and NYC may produce flash flooding,
especially in areas where soils are most saturated.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar showed a steady ENE progression of
robust thunderstorms tracking over the I-95 corridor in NJ and
southeast PA, then extending as far south as the DelMarVa
Peninsula. The area of greatest concern of potential flash
flooding is from the Wilmington metro on north into northern NJ
and far southern NY (west of NYC). MLCAPE here is hovering close
to 1,000 J/kg and PWATs between 1.5-1.75". Instability drops off
sharply along the Jersey shore and from NYC on east. Despite the
progressive storm motions, these storms are producing up to
1.5-1.75"/hr rates according to MRMS.

1-hr FFGs are still <1" from Wilmington and the Philly suburbs
into portions of the Lehigh Valley and northern NJ. Northern NJ,
in particular, has 1-hr FFGs as low as 0.5". The progressive storm
motions will help to limit the flash flood threat compared to
yesterday, but given the saturated soils and highly urbanized
corridor containing ample hydrophobic surfaces, a threat for flash
flooding will linger for a couple more hours. Street flooding is
possible, particularly in poor drainage areas.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5OSZQ9gQ8KCV0TzNCEkUG7DUTiw5ym4XGndWb9cZ6cTbZ5JLPrLXJnY5vGRQPB94QH6l=
-vaZ9tVHWkbfkGWOD0QJxyY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41537470 41517430 41367398 40847410 40057425=20
            39577450 39157486 38867544 38947583 39547575=20
            40367559 41067535=20

=3D =3D =3D
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