Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1308
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 19:22:32

ACUS11 KWNS 271922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271921=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-272045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...far southeast AR...northeast LA...central and
southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271921Z - 272045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a localized severe risk.=20
Damaging gusts are the primary hazard but severe hail is possible
too.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field from southern AR southeastward into MS.  A few thunderstorms
have developed in the past hour across central and southwest MS
within a weakly capped airmass.  Very moist/warm conditions are
indicated by surface observations early this afternoon with
temperatures rising into the lower 90s and dewpoints in the
mid-upper 70s.  RAP forecast soundings show upwards of 4500 J/kg
MLCAPE over central MS with weak west to northwesterly flow in the
lowest 4 km beneath 50-kt west-northwesterly flow around 11 km (250
mb).  The buoyancy/kinematic combination will support some storm
organization in the form of multicells.  Localized 50-65 mph gusts
and large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) are possible with the
more intense storms.  If a small cluster can develop, a perhaps more
focused severe risk will be able to be discerned.

...Smith/Grams.. 06/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!49zMWq6VrkNxgDciG2XLER2ZOFyMmvFqxP3bLo3BYowWC3fq8E3iL_01p0JHsNYe-BlzwKKTT=
7dFQuv5wiaM14Ihaqk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33299212 32889219 32559203 31139123 30999092 31069040
            31678932 31908919 32148915 33819023 33969065 33939116
            33299212=20


=3D =3D =3D
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