Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1307
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 18:49:32

ACUS11 KWNS 271849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271848=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...northeast NM...southeast CO...western OK
Panhandle...northwest TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271848Z - 272045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring for convective initiation near Raton Mesa.=20
Subsequent storm development will gradually spread east into
southeast CO and the TX-OK Panhandles.  The stronger storms will be
potentially capable of peak wind gusts 60-75 mph and large hail
diameters 1-2 inches.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a towering cumulus
field over escarpment in northeast NM.  Surface mesoanalysis shows
the western extension of morning thunderstorm outflow extends into
northwest OK and southwest KS where observation sites show easterly
component to flow.  This easterly upslope flow is resulting in upper
60s dewpoints in Texas County, OK (middle OK Panhandle county).=20
Meanwhile, strengthening southwesterly flow is overspreading the
Sangre de Cristos early this afternoon (40-55 kt at 500 mb) on the
southern portion of a mid-level speed max over the central Rockies.=20
Deeper mixing of the boundary layer is occurring across northeast NM
with surface winds veering to the west-southwest and dewpoints fall
into the 30s and lower 40s near I-25.

As the developing convection initially in a drier airmass encounters
increasingly rich low-level moisture and a more buoyant airmass
towards the OK/TX/CO border, expecting thunderstorms to rapidly
intensify.  Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the
stronger storms.  The severe risk will increase as this activity
approaches the longitude of the CO/KS border.

...Smith/Grams.. 06/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5aigvGI3JvoFI4vckWUyz957r9pKOwczAkxkDP6JnqEe8GiJsffOnJvmNTD6W0CrCYKu61-PX=
ZIZomFnGfE-weK9qG0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36760440 37380350 38340252 38390226 38190200 36110200
            35800227 35710259 36180444 36760440=20


=3D =3D =3D
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