Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1306
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 18:43:34

ACUS11 KWNS 271843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271843=20
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-272045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...Delmarva Peninsula...northern Mid Atlantic vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271843Z - 272045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may generate
consolidating outflows with gusty winds on their leading edge as
they advance eastward and southeastward into coastal areas through
5-7 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of mid/upper
troughing overspreading the region, increasing thunderstorm
development is already well underway near/east of weak surface
troughing to the lee of the Appalachians.  This is largely focused
where the environment remains seasonably moist, from northern
Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania.   Relatively warm mid/upper
levels with weak lapse rates, however, are still generally limiting
mixed-layer CAPE to around 1500+ J/kg.  This could still increase a
bit further with additional heating this afternoon.

Deep-layer south-southwesterly mean flow and shear are rather modest
around 20-25 kts, but this could contribute to some organization of
convection as convectively generated surface cold pools gradually
consolidate.  This may be accompanied by a strengthening gust front,
mainly where boundary-layer temperatures are warmest (and low-level
lapse rates steepest) across far eastern Virginia and the Delmarva
Peninsula into southern New Jersey.  However, peak gusts seem likely
to remain mostly below 50 kt.

...Kerr/Grams.. 06/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4a0iqVNUDGeNv-pgqVR0WU4-bHptSINkjsh1VegdUvc-Q3xI_xJATN45EaDEu_Fd09bmiyR6K=
a2Sr4Wsa4FCTy3n42w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   38747684 39217607 39917570 39667473 39127494 38527485
            38397514 37607570 37037711 38747684=20


=3D =3D =3D
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