Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1301
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 09:34:58

ACUS11 KWNS 270934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270934=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-271130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Areas affected...Far Eastern TX Panhandle...Southwest OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270934Z - 271130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and isolated hail are possible as the storm
cluster over the eastern TX Panhandle moves into southwest OK.

DISCUSSION...An initially elevated thunderstorm cluster has grown
upscale, organizing along its southeastward-progressing cold pool.
Air mass downstream across southwestern OK has strong low-level
stability (i.e. recent RAP soundings show -250 J/kg of MLCIN). Even
so, moderate mid-level moisture is in place (i.e. 850-mb dewpoints
around 20 deg C) beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, supporting
strong buoyancy with recent mesoanalysis estimated MUCAPE exceeding
4000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is also moderate, with 40 to 45 kt
in place across much of western OK. All of these factors suggest
some intensification of the ongoing cluster is possible, although
questions remain if sufficient cold pool-vertical shear balance can
be maintained given the strong low-level stability. Current
expectations are for the low-level stability to contribute to
gradually decreasing storm intensity. However, another scenario
exists where the cluster is able to maintain a favorable cold pool
balance and maintain its strength as it progress east-southeastward.
Convective trends will be monitored closely for signs of a more
persistent severe threat downstream.

...Mosier/Thompson.. 06/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Ek1XVcIRalokhxZOQbMfMEqQykOLP9pYXSurOODaQSDEibvdEKW7CG4u-NxkCaJ19_rrK_v4=
kfFO3B1euyx7h50UEs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35600016 35679884 35239805 34279844 34750028 35600016=20


=3D =3D =3D
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