Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 08:45:38

ACUS48 KWNS 270845
SWOD48
SPC AC 270843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
A mid-level anticyclone will become less amplified across the
Southeast on Friday and Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves
into the central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast from
the Southeast to the lower Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms will
likely develop in many areas across this airmass on both afternoons.
The most favorable area for severe storms on Friday appears to be in
the Ohio Valley, where a mid-level speed max is forecast. A
potential scenario is for an MCS, associated with an isolated severe
threat, to develop in the Ohio Valley and move southeastward into
the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon and early
evening. On Saturday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move a bit
further east. Convective initiation could again be favored in the
Ohio Valley, which could pose a similar scenario to Friday.

A potential for severe storms may also develop further to the west
across the central and southern Plains on Friday and Saturday.
Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear could pose an
isolated severe threat. At this time, model spread is relatively
large on both Friday and Saturday, suggesting predictability is too
low to add a severe threat area.

....Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
From Sunday to Tuesday, mid-level flow is forecast to weaken some
across the central and eastern U.S, as an upper-level trough moves
into the Northeast. The greatest instability is forecast over the
Southeast and in the north-central states, where scattered
thunderstorms will be possible each day. From Sunday to Tuesday, a
severe threat potential will be possible in the southern and central
Appalachians, and in parts of the northern Plains, where some
medium-range solutions show enhanced instability and shear. An
upper-level trough is forecast to move across the far northern U.S.
on Monday and Tuesday, and this could also provide focus for a
severe threat. At this point, predictability is low throughout the
Day 4 to 8 period, mainly due to the relatively weak pattern in
place, and large model spreads on potential scenarios.

...Broyles.. 06/27/2023

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