Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1296
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 02:50:57

ACUS11 KWNS 270250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270250=20
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-270345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern PA and western NJ and southern
NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270250Z - 270345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of severe storms will remain capable of
isolated strong gusts as storms continue to slowly weaken this
evening. A downstream watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 0240 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster
of thunderstorms ongoing across northeastern DE and far eastern PA.
Over the last hour these storms have produced occasional
strong/damaging wind gusts, with a measured gust to 42 mph at KILG.
A slow downtrend in convective intensity has been noted over the
last 30-45 minutes with the loss of diurnal heating. This general
weakening trend is expected to continue as the boundary layer cools
and MLCINH exceeding -150 J/kg was noted on the latest SPC
mesoanalysis. However, occasional strong gusts will remain possible
as storms continue across far eastern PA and western NJ over the
next hour. Given the weakening trend a downstream watch into
southern NY is unlikely.

...Lyons.. 06/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9Pxnvo9bkafVPM3dzEYG0TvPipivRLK5W-WsLbbSo0yD17vKTIE_JOaxXz73D0_7NF0ubu8TO=
Se0LMWrS5_xQZN8_vY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39517569 39617587 39677589 40287595 40447590 41207498
            41287483 41297422 41177379 41007364 40797362 40557372
            39977428 39797451 39717461 39577503 39517569=20


=3D =3D =3D
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